India must analyse the cause for the present economic crisis and correct the wrong policies.
A. In my view the reason for the crisis are:-
1. India have opened the economy indiscriminately to foreign countries.
2. Taxes and duties of imported items have been drastically reduced which affected the Indian Industry badly.
3. Allowing of FIIs to Indian stock market indiscriminately and drastic tax reduction for FII investments have de stabilised the stock market.
4. Allowing importing of non essential items and dumping in Indian roads affected all the units of all Industrial Estates and small scale industries and deprived the earnings of crores of Indian working people.
5. Opening of Future and Option Trade to FII , made the price of essential commodities to unrealistic levels due to entry of illegal and black money to the market.
B. What India have to do:-
1. Change trade currency from USA Dollar to Euro.
2. Ban all Future and Option market in India at one stroke.
3. De-list all Indian papers from all foreign stock markets. They must not be allowed to dictate the trend of Indian stocks.
4. Increase the tax on FII investment. Entry tax ( at least 25 % ) as well as Capital Gain tax { short term ( 3 years) = 50 % and Long term 40 % } to be levied.
5. India does not need FII money any more as the Domestic Institution, Mutual Funds and Pension and Insurance companies can sustain the stock market and they will not desert India and will support the market in case of crisis.
6. Most of the FII money have already gone out of India and India must not fear about stock market crash.
7. Open direct trade with all Gulf countries including Iraq and Iran. They are the real friends of India.The real reason for Iraq war has exposed USA's aim of controlling oil wealth of Arab nations.
8. Start oil pipe line work immediately.USA’s selfish threat must be ignored. USA want to control oil usage by any country must be defeated.Lot of Arab countries are interested to supply oil to India. This will isolate India from artificial oil price rise by the developed countries.
9. Increase tax and duties of all luxury items costing more than Rs 3 lakhs.
10. Ban all luxury cars and allow only cheap , economical and fuel efficient cars.
11. Encourage saving of oil by increasing public transport system vigorously.
12. Introduce more trains with Janatha class.
13. Essential commodities must be supplied in ration shops.
14. Janatha meals at subsidised rate must be provided in all the hotels with out any limit .
15. Land cost to be arrested. Wealth tax linked with real market rate must be introduced. The wealth tax must be applicable for the third property and any tax payer must be free from wealth tax for any two house/plot.
16. Surplus land of industry must be acquired by Government to develop housing for the middle/lower income group.
C. What India must get from USA:-
1. Only new and latest equipment at reasonable price must be supplied.
2. USA must not be allowed to interfere with Indian Nuclear policy and Nuclear Installation.
3. USA must scrap Quota for all imports from India.
4. USA must issue visa to all applicant of visa with out any limit.
5. USA must compensate India for increased Oil cost spent( 100 % ) for the past 5 years.Iraq Policy of India supporting USA has affected India's trade with Gulf countries.
D. Basis :-
1. There is no natural calamity in India or any where in the world resulting in shortage.
2. We have adequate supply of all essential commodities.
3. There is no shortage of Oil supply or surge in oil consumption in the world.
4. USA has lagrge Oil stock.USA want to conserve this and want to use oil from gulf.
4. The shortage is designed by the developed countries to discourage the developing countries to consume more oil.
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Reducing the risk of Alzheimer's
Reducing the risk of Alzheimer's
Controlling one’s drinking and smoking habits can delay the onset of Alzheimer’s disease.
Keeping it at bay: With proper care, the prevalence of Alzheimer’s can be brought down.
Alzheimer’s disease is a progressive, age-associated neurological disorder that initially affects the ability to recall recent events, but ultimately leads to an inability to function independently. As countries develop economically and the lifespan and the average age of its citizens increase, so does the number of individuals affected with Alzheimer’s disease. For societies with high proportions of older citizens, the epidemic of Alzheimer’s disease is a looming and major concern. Some of the most troublesome symptoms of this disease are not just those that affect memory and other mental abilities. Depression, paranoia and agitation, impaired balance, frequent falls and incontinence are features of the later stages of the disease and these greatly impact on the quality of life of the patients and on their family members. Modifiable factors
Although age is the single biggest risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease, genetic factors, which are not modifiable, and other factors, which are modifiable, are known to be strongly associated with the disease. The prevalence of a disease, i.e., the number of people that are affected by that disease at any given point in time, is a measure of the burden posed to society by that disease. After the age of 65, the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease doubles about every five years. If we could delay the onset of Alzheimer’s by five years, we could reduce its prevalence almost by half. As such, an important public health goal should be to identify and control all modifiable risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease, so as to delay the age of onset of the disease and dramatically reduce its prevalence.
At Mt. Sinai Medical Center, Miami Beach, Florida, my colleagues and I investigated how heavy smoking, which was defined as smoking two or more packs of cigarettes per day, and heavy drinking, which was defined as consuming more than two drinks a day, affected the age of onset of symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease. All the information about their drinking and smoking habits as well as the age when the first symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease were noticed was obtained from close family members. We performed blood tests to detect the e4 variant for the gene for the ApoE protein. The e4 gene variant is known to increase the risk for Alzheimer’s disease and is also known to reduce the age at which Alzheimer’s disease occurs.
At the recent annual meeting of the American Academy of Neurology, in Chicago, I presented the results of our analyses of nearly 700 patients diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease. As a group, their first symptoms started at the age of 75 years, but for those who drank alcohol moderately, did not smoke and did not have the e4 gene variant, the onset of symptoms was at 77 years of age. We found that each of the three risk factors, heavy smoking, heavy drinking and the e4gene variant, individually reduced the age of onset of Alzheimer’s disease by two to five years. When all three risk factors were present, the disease developed an average of 8.5 years earlier than in those with none of these risk factors. The findings, which need to be confirmed, raise many more questions which will need to be explored.
Moderate drinking helps
Although heavy drinking has been known to increase the risk, moderate alcohol consumption, which is generally defined as one to two drinks a day, has been shown to protect people from developing Alzheimer’s disease. The effect of smoking on Alzheimer’s disease has been somewhat controversial, because several earlier studies suggested that smoking protected people from developing Alzheimer’s disease. However, because regular smoking is so strongly associated with earlier death, it is now clear that these previous reports, showing a protective effect of smoking, were the result of what is known as “survivor bias” (i.e., those who smoke regularly and live long enough to develop age-related diseases are survivors and are genetically protected from developing many age-related diseases). Many previous studies have reported on the individual effects of these three factors (heavy drinking, heavy smoking and the ApoE e4gene) on the risk for developing Alzheimer’s disease, but the effect of these risk factors on lowering the age of onset of the disease has rarely been studied for smoking and drinking. Further, the combined risk for Alzheimer’s disease from these three factors has not been examined previously.
Alzheimer’s disease is rapidly becoming a burden for developing countries as well as developed countries. Mental and physical deterioration in this disease typically progresses gradually over a period of six to ten years from the onset, until death occurs. Caregivers of the patients often suffer emotionally and financially from the prolonged burden of observing the progression of the disease and caring for the patient. The disease has multiple victims because caregivers become much less productive as citizens and are more prone to developing medical and psychological problems, most likely because of the many stresses they have to bear. Although the importance of controlling risk factors for cardiovascular disease is well known to the public, delaying the age of onset of Alzheimer’s disease, which also has major public health benefits, has not been emphasised so far.
Similar risk factors
As it happens, all the factors that increase risk for heart disease are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer’s disease. The results of this study provide an additional reason for moderation in drinking and avoiding smoking, apart from the benefits to the heart and other organs. Those with the ApoE e4 gene variant, who are already at higher risk for developing Alzheimer’s disease, should be especially vigilant about how much they drink and about avoiding smoking. Routine screening for the ApoE e4 gene variant has not been recommended as a public health measure, but the results of this study suggest that this may become appropriate. Other measures that are known to reduce risk for heart disease, such as avoiding obesity, doing regular exercise and eating a healthy diet, are equally important measures to be emphasised for preventing Alzheimer’s disease.
The symptoms
Loss of recent memory: Repetitiousness, forgetting names, recent conversations and events, getting lost in familiar places, misplacing things, forgetting appointments, to make payments, to take medications and to do chores.
Changes in behaviour: Irritability, anxiety, depression, paranoia (accusing people of stealing misplaced items), agitation, aggressiveness, childishness.
Physical symptoms (Usually in later stages of the disease): Walking slow, less stable, stiffness of muscles, frequent falls, incontinence of urine.
The risk factors
Age (prevalence doubles every five years after 65 yrs)
Family history (risk increases 2-3 fold, if a close family member is affected)
Apolipoprotein E e4 gene variant (increases risk 2-4 fold)
Presence of other neurological diseases (e.g., Parkinsons, strokes, head injury, Down Syndrome)
Cardiovascular Disease and risk factors (Hypertension, coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, smoking, obesity, lack of exercise, high cholesterol)
Social isolation, Depression, Anxiety states
Heavy alcohol consumption (moderate drinking may be protective)
Gender (women may be at slightly greater risk)
Ranjan Duara is a neurologist who has studied the diagnosis, risk factors and treatment for Alzheimer’s disease for the last 30 years. He is currently based at Mt. Sinai Medical Centre, Miami Beach, Florida.
Controlling one’s drinking and smoking habits can delay the onset of Alzheimer’s disease.
Keeping it at bay: With proper care, the prevalence of Alzheimer’s can be brought down.
Alzheimer’s disease is a progressive, age-associated neurological disorder that initially affects the ability to recall recent events, but ultimately leads to an inability to function independently. As countries develop economically and the lifespan and the average age of its citizens increase, so does the number of individuals affected with Alzheimer’s disease. For societies with high proportions of older citizens, the epidemic of Alzheimer’s disease is a looming and major concern. Some of the most troublesome symptoms of this disease are not just those that affect memory and other mental abilities. Depression, paranoia and agitation, impaired balance, frequent falls and incontinence are features of the later stages of the disease and these greatly impact on the quality of life of the patients and on their family members. Modifiable factors
Although age is the single biggest risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease, genetic factors, which are not modifiable, and other factors, which are modifiable, are known to be strongly associated with the disease. The prevalence of a disease, i.e., the number of people that are affected by that disease at any given point in time, is a measure of the burden posed to society by that disease. After the age of 65, the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease doubles about every five years. If we could delay the onset of Alzheimer’s by five years, we could reduce its prevalence almost by half. As such, an important public health goal should be to identify and control all modifiable risk factors for Alzheimer’s disease, so as to delay the age of onset of the disease and dramatically reduce its prevalence.
At Mt. Sinai Medical Center, Miami Beach, Florida, my colleagues and I investigated how heavy smoking, which was defined as smoking two or more packs of cigarettes per day, and heavy drinking, which was defined as consuming more than two drinks a day, affected the age of onset of symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease. All the information about their drinking and smoking habits as well as the age when the first symptoms of Alzheimer’s disease were noticed was obtained from close family members. We performed blood tests to detect the e4 variant for the gene for the ApoE protein. The e4 gene variant is known to increase the risk for Alzheimer’s disease and is also known to reduce the age at which Alzheimer’s disease occurs.
At the recent annual meeting of the American Academy of Neurology, in Chicago, I presented the results of our analyses of nearly 700 patients diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease. As a group, their first symptoms started at the age of 75 years, but for those who drank alcohol moderately, did not smoke and did not have the e4 gene variant, the onset of symptoms was at 77 years of age. We found that each of the three risk factors, heavy smoking, heavy drinking and the e4gene variant, individually reduced the age of onset of Alzheimer’s disease by two to five years. When all three risk factors were present, the disease developed an average of 8.5 years earlier than in those with none of these risk factors. The findings, which need to be confirmed, raise many more questions which will need to be explored.
Moderate drinking helps
Although heavy drinking has been known to increase the risk, moderate alcohol consumption, which is generally defined as one to two drinks a day, has been shown to protect people from developing Alzheimer’s disease. The effect of smoking on Alzheimer’s disease has been somewhat controversial, because several earlier studies suggested that smoking protected people from developing Alzheimer’s disease. However, because regular smoking is so strongly associated with earlier death, it is now clear that these previous reports, showing a protective effect of smoking, were the result of what is known as “survivor bias” (i.e., those who smoke regularly and live long enough to develop age-related diseases are survivors and are genetically protected from developing many age-related diseases). Many previous studies have reported on the individual effects of these three factors (heavy drinking, heavy smoking and the ApoE e4gene) on the risk for developing Alzheimer’s disease, but the effect of these risk factors on lowering the age of onset of the disease has rarely been studied for smoking and drinking. Further, the combined risk for Alzheimer’s disease from these three factors has not been examined previously.
Alzheimer’s disease is rapidly becoming a burden for developing countries as well as developed countries. Mental and physical deterioration in this disease typically progresses gradually over a period of six to ten years from the onset, until death occurs. Caregivers of the patients often suffer emotionally and financially from the prolonged burden of observing the progression of the disease and caring for the patient. The disease has multiple victims because caregivers become much less productive as citizens and are more prone to developing medical and psychological problems, most likely because of the many stresses they have to bear. Although the importance of controlling risk factors for cardiovascular disease is well known to the public, delaying the age of onset of Alzheimer’s disease, which also has major public health benefits, has not been emphasised so far.
Similar risk factors
As it happens, all the factors that increase risk for heart disease are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer’s disease. The results of this study provide an additional reason for moderation in drinking and avoiding smoking, apart from the benefits to the heart and other organs. Those with the ApoE e4 gene variant, who are already at higher risk for developing Alzheimer’s disease, should be especially vigilant about how much they drink and about avoiding smoking. Routine screening for the ApoE e4 gene variant has not been recommended as a public health measure, but the results of this study suggest that this may become appropriate. Other measures that are known to reduce risk for heart disease, such as avoiding obesity, doing regular exercise and eating a healthy diet, are equally important measures to be emphasised for preventing Alzheimer’s disease.
The symptoms
Loss of recent memory: Repetitiousness, forgetting names, recent conversations and events, getting lost in familiar places, misplacing things, forgetting appointments, to make payments, to take medications and to do chores.
Changes in behaviour: Irritability, anxiety, depression, paranoia (accusing people of stealing misplaced items), agitation, aggressiveness, childishness.
Physical symptoms (Usually in later stages of the disease): Walking slow, less stable, stiffness of muscles, frequent falls, incontinence of urine.
The risk factors
Age (prevalence doubles every five years after 65 yrs)
Family history (risk increases 2-3 fold, if a close family member is affected)
Apolipoprotein E e4 gene variant (increases risk 2-4 fold)
Presence of other neurological diseases (e.g., Parkinsons, strokes, head injury, Down Syndrome)
Cardiovascular Disease and risk factors (Hypertension, coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, smoking, obesity, lack of exercise, high cholesterol)
Social isolation, Depression, Anxiety states
Heavy alcohol consumption (moderate drinking may be protective)
Gender (women may be at slightly greater risk)
Ranjan Duara is a neurologist who has studied the diagnosis, risk factors and treatment for Alzheimer’s disease for the last 30 years. He is currently based at Mt. Sinai Medical Centre, Miami Beach, Florida.
India has enough shale oil to join OPEC?
India has enough shale oil to join OPEC?
India has enough oil trapped in shale and coal deposits in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh to produce 140 million tonnes per year for 100 years, say former geologists of Oil India Ltd including ex-chairman and MD Chudamani Ratnam. This is more than India's entire current consumption, high enough to make India a member of OPEC.
You might think this would be a major strategic thrust of our energy policy. Yet, there was no mention of shale oil at last week's meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Energy Coordination Committee, chaired by the prime minister. The meeting focused on acquiring oil, gas and coal reserves overseas. Does not domestic shale oil deserve higher priority?
We need an immediate strategy to evaluate shale oil deposits in greater detail, evaluate the best technologies for extracting oil, and then set up a commercial scale plant. Given the huge potential benefits, the risks are worthwhile. If this works, we can throw open our huge deposits to international exploration, as has already been done for conventional oil and gas deposits.
Shale oil deposits are common the world over, but have not been mined because of uncertainties over the future price of oil. Ratnam and his fellow-geologists estimated in 1990 that extracting shale oil would become economic at an oil price of $30/barrel. US experts estimate that shale oil would be economic today at $35-40/barrel. With the world price touching $35/barrel, you might think that oil multinationals would be scrambling to produce shale oil in several countries.
In the 1970s, expectation of ever-rising oil prices spurred giant shale oil projects in the US. Exxon built a $5 billion facility in the Rockies. This had to shut down in 1982 because of dipping oil prices. Other shale oil projects of Tosco and Unocal are closed down soon after. Multinationals lost all appetite for shale oil after those expensive failures.
Environmental issues also dogged these projects. Oil-shale has to be mined, crushed and baked to extract oil. The spent shale is huge in volume, and needs large quantities of water to cool and stabilise it. Shale mining was tried in the US in arid areas lacking water.
However, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh are blessed with ample water. A small dam on a minor tributary of the Brahmaputra could provide enough water, and generate hydel power too. Possibly the dam itself could be a rock-filled one built with spent shale.
The first step needed is to appoint international consultants to assess the deposits and suggest technologies for extraction. Oil India Ltd (OIL) has long explored for oil and gas in the north-east, and is the obvious candidate for setting up a commercial-scale plant to extract shale oil. Given the potential benefit, the risks are worthwhile.
Over 90% of OIL's staff are Assamese, so ULFA and other militant outfits are unlikely to paralyse such a project with bandhs. Coal-mine rejects (containing more shale than coal) already lie piled up at mine-heads in Assam, providing ready-made material for a shale oil project.
If the project yields good results, we can have a New Exploration Licensing Policy for shale oil, throwing open the deposits for competitive bidding. To attract bidders and ensure again a sudden dip in future oil price, the government should guarantee a floor price of $35-40/barrel. In return for such a guarantee, the government could ask for a 50% share of any price hike above $60. This would make the project attractive for both bidders and guarantor.
Assam coal is, technically, a sort of solid petroleum deposit (it is a marine sediment like oil, not a carbonised forest like conventional coal). This makes it especially suitable for conversion to oil. Assam coal has much sulphur, so it is a high-pollution fuel for thermal power. But coal liquefaction yields ultra-clean oil, leaving behind sulphur as a by-product that can be used for fertiliser manufacture.
Coal can be converted to oil using the direct liquefaction technology of IFP of France, or the indirect liquefaction technology (coal into gas and then gas into oil) of companies like Sasol, Chevron and Shell. OIL already has a technological tie-up with IFP for direct liquefaction.
China is planning to set up at least four plants to convert coal to oil. The Shenhua Group is setting up a direct liquefaction plant in Inner Mongolia using IFP technology. However, this has run into technical glitches, and there are reports that the plant will switch to two-stage liquefaction using Shells technology. India needs to make a start immediately, experimenting with different technologies. China already plans to invest over $15 billion in extracting oil from coal. India has not even started thinking about this.
Ref:This article appeared in Economic Times dt 13 Aug 2005 written by MR.SWAMINATHAN S ANKLESARIA AIYAR
India has enough oil trapped in shale and coal deposits in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh to produce 140 million tonnes per year for 100 years, say former geologists of Oil India Ltd including ex-chairman and MD Chudamani Ratnam. This is more than India's entire current consumption, high enough to make India a member of OPEC.
You might think this would be a major strategic thrust of our energy policy. Yet, there was no mention of shale oil at last week's meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Energy Coordination Committee, chaired by the prime minister. The meeting focused on acquiring oil, gas and coal reserves overseas. Does not domestic shale oil deserve higher priority?
We need an immediate strategy to evaluate shale oil deposits in greater detail, evaluate the best technologies for extracting oil, and then set up a commercial scale plant. Given the huge potential benefits, the risks are worthwhile. If this works, we can throw open our huge deposits to international exploration, as has already been done for conventional oil and gas deposits.
Shale oil deposits are common the world over, but have not been mined because of uncertainties over the future price of oil. Ratnam and his fellow-geologists estimated in 1990 that extracting shale oil would become economic at an oil price of $30/barrel. US experts estimate that shale oil would be economic today at $35-40/barrel. With the world price touching $35/barrel, you might think that oil multinationals would be scrambling to produce shale oil in several countries.
In the 1970s, expectation of ever-rising oil prices spurred giant shale oil projects in the US. Exxon built a $5 billion facility in the Rockies. This had to shut down in 1982 because of dipping oil prices. Other shale oil projects of Tosco and Unocal are closed down soon after. Multinationals lost all appetite for shale oil after those expensive failures.
Environmental issues also dogged these projects. Oil-shale has to be mined, crushed and baked to extract oil. The spent shale is huge in volume, and needs large quantities of water to cool and stabilise it. Shale mining was tried in the US in arid areas lacking water.
However, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh are blessed with ample water. A small dam on a minor tributary of the Brahmaputra could provide enough water, and generate hydel power too. Possibly the dam itself could be a rock-filled one built with spent shale.
The first step needed is to appoint international consultants to assess the deposits and suggest technologies for extraction. Oil India Ltd (OIL) has long explored for oil and gas in the north-east, and is the obvious candidate for setting up a commercial-scale plant to extract shale oil. Given the potential benefit, the risks are worthwhile.
Over 90% of OIL's staff are Assamese, so ULFA and other militant outfits are unlikely to paralyse such a project with bandhs. Coal-mine rejects (containing more shale than coal) already lie piled up at mine-heads in Assam, providing ready-made material for a shale oil project.
If the project yields good results, we can have a New Exploration Licensing Policy for shale oil, throwing open the deposits for competitive bidding. To attract bidders and ensure again a sudden dip in future oil price, the government should guarantee a floor price of $35-40/barrel. In return for such a guarantee, the government could ask for a 50% share of any price hike above $60. This would make the project attractive for both bidders and guarantor.
Assam coal is, technically, a sort of solid petroleum deposit (it is a marine sediment like oil, not a carbonised forest like conventional coal). This makes it especially suitable for conversion to oil. Assam coal has much sulphur, so it is a high-pollution fuel for thermal power. But coal liquefaction yields ultra-clean oil, leaving behind sulphur as a by-product that can be used for fertiliser manufacture.
Coal can be converted to oil using the direct liquefaction technology of IFP of France, or the indirect liquefaction technology (coal into gas and then gas into oil) of companies like Sasol, Chevron and Shell. OIL already has a technological tie-up with IFP for direct liquefaction.
China is planning to set up at least four plants to convert coal to oil. The Shenhua Group is setting up a direct liquefaction plant in Inner Mongolia using IFP technology. However, this has run into technical glitches, and there are reports that the plant will switch to two-stage liquefaction using Shells technology. India needs to make a start immediately, experimenting with different technologies. China already plans to invest over $15 billion in extracting oil from coal. India has not even started thinking about this.
Ref:This article appeared in Economic Times dt 13 Aug 2005 written by MR.SWAMINATHAN S ANKLESARIA AIYAR
Oil prices overvalued by at least 40%: EU
BERLIN: The price of oil is overvalued by at least 40 percent and should fall to around $80 to $90 per barrel over the longer term, a top European Union economic adviser was quoted as saying on Wednesday.
Klaus Gretschmann, director general for internal market issues at the EU's Council of Ministers, told German daily Die Welt that a speculative bubble had formed around oil prices which would burst, lowering the cost of crude.
"In my view, the price of oil is at least 40 percent overvalued. Twenty percent of the current price is attributable to foreign exchange effects and the weakness of the dollar, another 25 percent are down to speculation," he said.
Average production costs for a barrel of crude were currently around $15 to $25, the paper quoted him as saying in a preview of an article from its Thursday edition. "I expect a clear market correction and that the bubble will burst," Gretschmann said.
"In my analysis, the longer-term price trend is between $80 and $90 per barrel of crude." There were indications that "exaggerations" in oil prices had reached a peak, but it was hard to say exactly when this bubble would burst, Gretschmann added.
Oil prices surged to a record of more than $139 per barrel in the United States last week, and have flirted with that level since. Gretschmann said financial markets had played a "very considerable" role in the recent development of oil prices.
"Since the experience of the US mortgage crisis, financial investments are being shifted from shares and bonds to commodities," he said. "Exaggerations are the result." Institutional investors in particular had spent heavily on commodities and purchased futures contracts in expectation of rising prices, Gretschmann said.
"In the United States alone, the sums involved in this have risen from $26 billion in 2005 to $260 billion at the start of April 2008," he told the paper.
Posted by neysamy at 5:05 AM 0 comments Links to this post
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Oil may slip to $75 a barrel, says Goldman's Murti
Barely a month after he stunned the world by saying that oil prices will soon cross $200 per barrel, Goldman Sachs' ace oil analyst Arjun N Murti is now predicting that $200 levels for oil are unsustainable, and the demand for oil will drop drastically pulling down its price to around $75 per barrel.
Murti is not alone in this prediction. The chief economist of Canada's National Bank Financial, Clement Gignac, also holds that oil prices are set to slip to $75 to $80 a barrel.
Speaking to a business magazine, Murti explained that supply of oil in the global market is not likely to rise anytime soon, as most nations are holding back from increasing oil output. Coupled with this, he said, the rising global demand for oil -- especially from India and China -- among other nations is adding to price pressure, leading to the surge in oil tags.
But soon the prices of oil will become untenable, leading to a sharp decline in demand and price. However, some analysts believe that some Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries might increase oil production easing the supply pressure and thus helping drive down oil prices.
Saudi Arabia yesterday called for an urgent meeting of oil producing and consuming countries to discuss what it called the “unjustifiable rise in oil prices.” It also offered to coordinate with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers to ensure adequate supply in order to curb prices.
The decision to hold an oil conference was taken by the Council of Ministers, chaired by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah.
“Current oil prices are unjustifiable in terms of petroleum facts and market fundamentals,” the Cabinet said.
However, the Kingdom pointed out that the market has sufficient supply and an increasing commercial inventory. Oil prices surged by nearly $11 on Friday to a new record above $139 a barrel, partly on the weakness of the dollar and also because of increasing tension between Israel and Iran, the world’s fourth largest oil exporter.
“Saudi Arabia will coordinate with the OPEC and other major producers to ensure adequate supply in both the present and the future,” the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) quoted the Cabinet as saying. “The Kingdom will also work to prevent oil prices from rising in an unjustified and abnormal manner, affecting the international economy, especially the economies of developing countries.”
The Cabinet statement disclosed that Saudi Arabia increased oil production this month and had informed oil companies and consuming countries of its readiness to supply additional quantities of oil to meet their requirements.
The Cabinet instructed Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Ali Al-Naimi to call for the oil conference, which would include representatives from producing and consuming countries as well as companies involved in production, export and sale of oil, SPA said, adding that the meeting would discuss the reasons for rising oil prices and how to deal with them effectively.
Consuming governments have been putting pressure on OPEC, the supplier of more than a third of the world’s oil, to boost output in order to ease the effect of high prices on their economies.
OPEC blames factors beyond its control, including speculation and political tension, for the price rise. Saudi Arabia boosted output by 300,000 bpd to pump 9.45 million bpd in June, and Al-Naimi said last month the Kingdom was meeting all the demand for its crude.
OPEC President Chakib Khelil said that had it not been for the weak dollar, political tensions and speculation, oil prices would probably be around $70 a barrel. “In terms of fundamentals, there is no problem of supply and demand. There is much more a bubble due to speculation, which is based on a depreciating dollar and geopolitical tensions,” Khelil said yesterday.
The Cabinet praised the outcome of the recently concluded international conference on interfaith dialogue in Makkah, which was attended by more than 600 delegates from around the world.
At the beginning of the meeting, King Abdullah briefed the ministers on the outcome of his talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. The Cabinet reiterated Saudi Arabia’s unwavering support for the Palestinian cause.
Crown Prince Sultan, who returned from Spain on Sunday after a four-day official visit, briefed the Cabinet on his talks with Spanish King Juan Carlos and top officials.
The Cabinet hoped that the royal visit would take Saudi-Spanish relations to new heights.
Culture and Information Minister Iyad Madani said the Cabinet meeting also approved the principles and measures to tackle the delay in implementation of government projects by contractors. Earlier, the Cabinet set up a ministerial committee to study the issue.
Klaus Gretschmann, director general for internal market issues at the EU's Council of Ministers, told German daily Die Welt that a speculative bubble had formed around oil prices which would burst, lowering the cost of crude.
"In my view, the price of oil is at least 40 percent overvalued. Twenty percent of the current price is attributable to foreign exchange effects and the weakness of the dollar, another 25 percent are down to speculation," he said.
Average production costs for a barrel of crude were currently around $15 to $25, the paper quoted him as saying in a preview of an article from its Thursday edition. "I expect a clear market correction and that the bubble will burst," Gretschmann said.
"In my analysis, the longer-term price trend is between $80 and $90 per barrel of crude." There were indications that "exaggerations" in oil prices had reached a peak, but it was hard to say exactly when this bubble would burst, Gretschmann added.
Oil prices surged to a record of more than $139 per barrel in the United States last week, and have flirted with that level since. Gretschmann said financial markets had played a "very considerable" role in the recent development of oil prices.
"Since the experience of the US mortgage crisis, financial investments are being shifted from shares and bonds to commodities," he said. "Exaggerations are the result." Institutional investors in particular had spent heavily on commodities and purchased futures contracts in expectation of rising prices, Gretschmann said.
"In the United States alone, the sums involved in this have risen from $26 billion in 2005 to $260 billion at the start of April 2008," he told the paper.
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Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Oil may slip to $75 a barrel, says Goldman's Murti
Barely a month after he stunned the world by saying that oil prices will soon cross $200 per barrel, Goldman Sachs' ace oil analyst Arjun N Murti is now predicting that $200 levels for oil are unsustainable, and the demand for oil will drop drastically pulling down its price to around $75 per barrel.
Murti is not alone in this prediction. The chief economist of Canada's National Bank Financial, Clement Gignac, also holds that oil prices are set to slip to $75 to $80 a barrel.
Speaking to a business magazine, Murti explained that supply of oil in the global market is not likely to rise anytime soon, as most nations are holding back from increasing oil output. Coupled with this, he said, the rising global demand for oil -- especially from India and China -- among other nations is adding to price pressure, leading to the surge in oil tags.
But soon the prices of oil will become untenable, leading to a sharp decline in demand and price. However, some analysts believe that some Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries might increase oil production easing the supply pressure and thus helping drive down oil prices.
Saudi Arabia yesterday called for an urgent meeting of oil producing and consuming countries to discuss what it called the “unjustifiable rise in oil prices.” It also offered to coordinate with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers to ensure adequate supply in order to curb prices.
The decision to hold an oil conference was taken by the Council of Ministers, chaired by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah.
“Current oil prices are unjustifiable in terms of petroleum facts and market fundamentals,” the Cabinet said.
However, the Kingdom pointed out that the market has sufficient supply and an increasing commercial inventory. Oil prices surged by nearly $11 on Friday to a new record above $139 a barrel, partly on the weakness of the dollar and also because of increasing tension between Israel and Iran, the world’s fourth largest oil exporter.
“Saudi Arabia will coordinate with the OPEC and other major producers to ensure adequate supply in both the present and the future,” the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) quoted the Cabinet as saying. “The Kingdom will also work to prevent oil prices from rising in an unjustified and abnormal manner, affecting the international economy, especially the economies of developing countries.”
The Cabinet statement disclosed that Saudi Arabia increased oil production this month and had informed oil companies and consuming countries of its readiness to supply additional quantities of oil to meet their requirements.
The Cabinet instructed Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Ali Al-Naimi to call for the oil conference, which would include representatives from producing and consuming countries as well as companies involved in production, export and sale of oil, SPA said, adding that the meeting would discuss the reasons for rising oil prices and how to deal with them effectively.
Consuming governments have been putting pressure on OPEC, the supplier of more than a third of the world’s oil, to boost output in order to ease the effect of high prices on their economies.
OPEC blames factors beyond its control, including speculation and political tension, for the price rise. Saudi Arabia boosted output by 300,000 bpd to pump 9.45 million bpd in June, and Al-Naimi said last month the Kingdom was meeting all the demand for its crude.
OPEC President Chakib Khelil said that had it not been for the weak dollar, political tensions and speculation, oil prices would probably be around $70 a barrel. “In terms of fundamentals, there is no problem of supply and demand. There is much more a bubble due to speculation, which is based on a depreciating dollar and geopolitical tensions,” Khelil said yesterday.
The Cabinet praised the outcome of the recently concluded international conference on interfaith dialogue in Makkah, which was attended by more than 600 delegates from around the world.
At the beginning of the meeting, King Abdullah briefed the ministers on the outcome of his talks with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani. The Cabinet reiterated Saudi Arabia’s unwavering support for the Palestinian cause.
Crown Prince Sultan, who returned from Spain on Sunday after a four-day official visit, briefed the Cabinet on his talks with Spanish King Juan Carlos and top officials.
The Cabinet hoped that the royal visit would take Saudi-Spanish relations to new heights.
Culture and Information Minister Iyad Madani said the Cabinet meeting also approved the principles and measures to tackle the delay in implementation of government projects by contractors. Earlier, the Cabinet set up a ministerial committee to study the issue.
Neurodegenerative conditions
Neurodegenerative conditions
ScienceDaily (June 13, 2008) — Queensland Brain Institute (QBI) neuroscientists at UQ have discovered a new way to reduce neuronal loss in the brain of a person with Alzheimer's disease.
Memory loss in people with Alzheimer's disease can be attributed to several factors. These include a build-up of the neuro-toxin Amyloid beta -- the major component of amyloid plaques found in patients with Alzheimer's -- and corresponding degeneration of a specific population of nerve cells in the basal forebrain.
Dr Elizabeth Coulson, QBI neuroscientist, said the research had established that the molecule known as p75 neurotrophin receptor was necessary for the Amyloid beta to cause nerve cell degeneration in the basal forebrain.
During her research, Dr Coulson's team found -- both in cultured cells and in an animal model of Alzheimer's disease -- that it was possible to completely prevent Amyloid beta toxicity by removing the p75 cell death receptor.
"Discovering how Amyloid beta triggers neuronal degeneration has been a question bugging neuroscientists for decades, and we have identified an important piece of the puzzle," Dr Coulson said.
These results provide a novel mechanism to explain the early and characteristic loss of brain cells that occurs in Alzheimer's disease -- which are known to be important for memory formation.
Dr Coulson already has patented molecules that can block p75 and is ready to begin testing them in animal models of Alzheimer's disease.
"If such therapy is successful, it probably wouldn't cure this multifaceted disease," Dr Coulson said.
"But it would be a significant improvement on what is currently available for Alzheimer's disease patients."
The World Health Organisation predicts that by 2040, neurodegenerative conditions will become the world's leading cause of death, overtaking cancer.
Alzheimer's disease is the most common dementia affecting 10 per cent of people over 65 and 40 per cent over 80 years of age.
Significant advances in determining the molecular regulation of nerve cell function and survival have major impact on our understanding of more complex areas such as behaviour, cognition, aging and neurological diseases.
Abnormal accumulation of amyloid fibers and other misfolded forms in the brain cause neurodegenerative diseases. Similarly, build-up of abnormally folded prion proteins between neurons causes the human version of mad cow disease, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.
"Surprisingly, a small molecule called DAPH selectively targets the areas that hold fibers together, and converts fibers to a form that is unable to grow. Normally fibers grow from their ends, but the drug stops this activity," says senior author James Shorter, PhD, Assistant Professor of Biochemistry and Biophysics. "Our data suggest that it is possible to generate effective small molecules that can attack amyloid fibers, which are associated with so many devastating diseases."
The researchers are now working on how DAPH acts as a wedge to stop the fibers from growing. "Presumably DAPH fits very neatly into the crevices between fiber subunits," explains Shorter. "When we grow yeast cells with the prion in the presence of DAPH, they begin to lose the prion. We also saw this in the test tube using pure fibers. The small molecule directly remodels fiber architecture. We've really been able to get at the mechanism by which DAPH, or any small molecule, works for the first time." DAPH was originally found in a screen of small molecules that reduce amyloid-beta toxicity in the lab of co-author Vernon Ingram, Shorter's collaborator at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
In a test tube, if a small amount of amyloid or prion fiber is added to the normal form of the protein, it converts it to the fiber form. But when DPAH is added to the mix, the yeast prion protein does not aggregate into fibers. "It's essentially stopping fiber formation in its tracks," says Huan Wang, first author and research specialist in Shorter's lab. "We were surprised to see two very different proteins, amyloid-beta and Sup35, sensitive to this same small molecule."
The next step is to identify more potent DAPH variants with greater selectivity for deleterious amyloids. Since some amyloids may turn out to be beneficial -- for example, one form may be involved in long-term memory formation -- it will be necessary to find a drug that does not hit all amyloids indiscriminately. "We'd need one that hits only problem amyloids, and DAPH gives us a hint that such selectivity is possible" says Shorter.
This work was initiated in Susan Lindquist's lab at MIT and completed at Penn. The study was funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the Alzheimer's Association, the Kurt and Johanna Immerwahr Fund for Alzheimer Research, a DuPont-MIT alliance, the American Heart Association, and pilot grants from the University of Pennsylvania Alzheimer's Disease Core Center and Institute on Aging.
ScienceDaily (June 13, 2008) — Queensland Brain Institute (QBI) neuroscientists at UQ have discovered a new way to reduce neuronal loss in the brain of a person with Alzheimer's disease.
Memory loss in people with Alzheimer's disease can be attributed to several factors. These include a build-up of the neuro-toxin Amyloid beta -- the major component of amyloid plaques found in patients with Alzheimer's -- and corresponding degeneration of a specific population of nerve cells in the basal forebrain.
Dr Elizabeth Coulson, QBI neuroscientist, said the research had established that the molecule known as p75 neurotrophin receptor was necessary for the Amyloid beta to cause nerve cell degeneration in the basal forebrain.
During her research, Dr Coulson's team found -- both in cultured cells and in an animal model of Alzheimer's disease -- that it was possible to completely prevent Amyloid beta toxicity by removing the p75 cell death receptor.
"Discovering how Amyloid beta triggers neuronal degeneration has been a question bugging neuroscientists for decades, and we have identified an important piece of the puzzle," Dr Coulson said.
These results provide a novel mechanism to explain the early and characteristic loss of brain cells that occurs in Alzheimer's disease -- which are known to be important for memory formation.
Dr Coulson already has patented molecules that can block p75 and is ready to begin testing them in animal models of Alzheimer's disease.
"If such therapy is successful, it probably wouldn't cure this multifaceted disease," Dr Coulson said.
"But it would be a significant improvement on what is currently available for Alzheimer's disease patients."
The World Health Organisation predicts that by 2040, neurodegenerative conditions will become the world's leading cause of death, overtaking cancer.
Alzheimer's disease is the most common dementia affecting 10 per cent of people over 65 and 40 per cent over 80 years of age.
Significant advances in determining the molecular regulation of nerve cell function and survival have major impact on our understanding of more complex areas such as behaviour, cognition, aging and neurological diseases.
Abnormal accumulation of amyloid fibers and other misfolded forms in the brain cause neurodegenerative diseases. Similarly, build-up of abnormally folded prion proteins between neurons causes the human version of mad cow disease, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.
"Surprisingly, a small molecule called DAPH selectively targets the areas that hold fibers together, and converts fibers to a form that is unable to grow. Normally fibers grow from their ends, but the drug stops this activity," says senior author James Shorter, PhD, Assistant Professor of Biochemistry and Biophysics. "Our data suggest that it is possible to generate effective small molecules that can attack amyloid fibers, which are associated with so many devastating diseases."
The researchers are now working on how DAPH acts as a wedge to stop the fibers from growing. "Presumably DAPH fits very neatly into the crevices between fiber subunits," explains Shorter. "When we grow yeast cells with the prion in the presence of DAPH, they begin to lose the prion. We also saw this in the test tube using pure fibers. The small molecule directly remodels fiber architecture. We've really been able to get at the mechanism by which DAPH, or any small molecule, works for the first time." DAPH was originally found in a screen of small molecules that reduce amyloid-beta toxicity in the lab of co-author Vernon Ingram, Shorter's collaborator at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
In a test tube, if a small amount of amyloid or prion fiber is added to the normal form of the protein, it converts it to the fiber form. But when DPAH is added to the mix, the yeast prion protein does not aggregate into fibers. "It's essentially stopping fiber formation in its tracks," says Huan Wang, first author and research specialist in Shorter's lab. "We were surprised to see two very different proteins, amyloid-beta and Sup35, sensitive to this same small molecule."
The next step is to identify more potent DAPH variants with greater selectivity for deleterious amyloids. Since some amyloids may turn out to be beneficial -- for example, one form may be involved in long-term memory formation -- it will be necessary to find a drug that does not hit all amyloids indiscriminately. "We'd need one that hits only problem amyloids, and DAPH gives us a hint that such selectivity is possible" says Shorter.
This work was initiated in Susan Lindquist's lab at MIT and completed at Penn. The study was funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the Alzheimer's Association, the Kurt and Johanna Immerwahr Fund for Alzheimer Research, a DuPont-MIT alliance, the American Heart Association, and pilot grants from the University of Pennsylvania Alzheimer's Disease Core Center and Institute on Aging.
Turmeric, a common Indian cooking spice may play a vital role in combating diabetes and obesity, according to a new study.
Turmeric, a common Indian cooking spice may play a vital role in combating diabetes and obesity, according to a new study.
Researchers from Columbia University Medical Centre have found that curcumin, the anti-nflammatory, anti-oxidant ingredient in turmeric can significantly reduce insulin resistance and prevent Type 2 diabetes. The component also reduced inflammation in fat tissue.
In the study using a mouse model, lead researcher Drew Tortoriello, an endocrinologist and esearch scientist at the Naomi Berrie Diabetes Centre found that turmeric-treated mice were less susceptible to developing Type 2 diabetes.
Moreover, the turmeric-fed obese mice exhibited reduced inflammation in fat tissue and liver ompared to controls.
They speculate that curcumin lessens insulin resistance and prevents Type 2 diabetes in these ouse models by dampening the inflammatory response provoked by obesity.
Curcumin administration was also associated with a small but significant decline in body weight nd fat content, despite level or higher calorie consumption, suggesting that curcumin beneficially influences body composition.
"It's too early to tell whether increasing dietary curcumin [through turmeric] intake in obese people with diabetes will show a similar benefit," Dr. Tortoriello said.
"Although the daily intake of curcumin one might have to consume as a primary diabetes reatment is likely impractical, it is entirely possible that lower dosages of curcumin could nicely complement our traditional therapies as a natural and safe treatment," he added.
Dr. Tortoriello conclude that turmeric reverses many of the inflammatory and metabolic problems ssociated with obesity and improves blood-sugar control in mouse models of Type 2 diabetes.
The study was presented at at ENDO 2008, the Endocrine Society's annual meeting in San rancisco this week.
Researchers from Columbia University Medical Centre have found that curcumin, the anti-nflammatory, anti-oxidant ingredient in turmeric can significantly reduce insulin resistance and prevent Type 2 diabetes. The component also reduced inflammation in fat tissue.
In the study using a mouse model, lead researcher Drew Tortoriello, an endocrinologist and esearch scientist at the Naomi Berrie Diabetes Centre found that turmeric-treated mice were less susceptible to developing Type 2 diabetes.
Moreover, the turmeric-fed obese mice exhibited reduced inflammation in fat tissue and liver ompared to controls.
They speculate that curcumin lessens insulin resistance and prevents Type 2 diabetes in these ouse models by dampening the inflammatory response provoked by obesity.
Curcumin administration was also associated with a small but significant decline in body weight nd fat content, despite level or higher calorie consumption, suggesting that curcumin beneficially influences body composition.
"It's too early to tell whether increasing dietary curcumin [through turmeric] intake in obese people with diabetes will show a similar benefit," Dr. Tortoriello said.
"Although the daily intake of curcumin one might have to consume as a primary diabetes reatment is likely impractical, it is entirely possible that lower dosages of curcumin could nicely complement our traditional therapies as a natural and safe treatment," he added.
Dr. Tortoriello conclude that turmeric reverses many of the inflammatory and metabolic problems ssociated with obesity and improves blood-sugar control in mouse models of Type 2 diabetes.
The study was presented at at ENDO 2008, the Endocrine Society's annual meeting in San rancisco this week.
Billion may suffer from Mobile Cancer by 2020
Billion may suffer from Mobile Cancer by 2020
The studies and survey conducted by Australian Health Research Institute indicates that due to billions of times more in volume electromagnetic radiation emitted by billions of mobile phones, internet, intranet and wireless communication data transmission will make almost one-third of world population (about two billions) patient of ear, eye and brain cancer beside other major body disorders like heart ailments, impotency, migraine, epilepsy.
According to the reports the tissues of children are tender and are likely to be more effected by use of any wireless gadget and devices and they should not be encouraged to use mobile phone.
The fatal and volumetric effects of electromagnetic radiation emitted mainly by mobile phones, mobile phone antenna, tower, mast, transmission tower, microwave oven, wireless devices, system and equipment.
These dangerous effects have been certified and confirmed repeatedly by many leading medical and scientific research institutions of the world including Ministries of health of various governments, W.H.O. and now have been admitted and confirmed by Govt. of India in their recent press releases.
The attached image shows and proves about the serious ill effects of E.M. radiation released by Radiation Nuclear and Safety Authority of FINLAND as to how E.M. radiation emitted by mobile phones damages the various body cells and causes incurable and fatal diseases.
The studies and survey conducted by Australian Health Research Institute indicates that due to billions of times more in volume electromagnetic radiation emitted by billions of mobile phones, internet, intranet and wireless communication data transmission will make almost one-third of world population (about two billions) patient of ear, eye and brain cancer beside other major body disorders like heart ailments, impotency, migraine, epilepsy.
According to the reports the tissues of children are tender and are likely to be more effected by use of any wireless gadget and devices and they should not be encouraged to use mobile phone.
The fatal and volumetric effects of electromagnetic radiation emitted mainly by mobile phones, mobile phone antenna, tower, mast, transmission tower, microwave oven, wireless devices, system and equipment.
These dangerous effects have been certified and confirmed repeatedly by many leading medical and scientific research institutions of the world including Ministries of health of various governments, W.H.O. and now have been admitted and confirmed by Govt. of India in their recent press releases.
The attached image shows and proves about the serious ill effects of E.M. radiation released by Radiation Nuclear and Safety Authority of FINLAND as to how E.M. radiation emitted by mobile phones damages the various body cells and causes incurable and fatal diseases.
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